Halcyon days

Halcyon days, a period when storms do not occur derived its name from Alcyone (Αλκυονη in Greek), who was the daughter of Aeolus, God of winds.  When Alcyone's husband fell in the sea, in a shipwreck, she threw herself into the sea whereupon the Gods transformed them into halcyon birds (kingfishers).  When Alcyone made her nest on the beach, waves threatened to destroy it, but Aeolus kept his winds calm so she could lay her eggs.  It was these calm periods that became known as the "halcyon days".  It is a period of 7 to 14 days when storms do not occur or it denotes a period that is remembered for its happiness.  I wish you all dear friends, many Halcyon periods, in your lives.

Picture of seagulls flying near the islet of Rafti by Kostas Fotos. 

2013-2021; a Travelogue

In the past 7 years, I uploaded 202 posts in my blog Cross Country Chronicles.  As this is the first post of 2021 and maybe the final of this series that started with a trip, I took with my son John, from Orlando to San Francisco to Chicago and on to our starting point Columbus, Ohio.  Also, it included among others the remarkable crossing from Spain to Greece on my brother Nikos 29-foot sailboat Okyrhoe.  The trip from Florida to California and back to Ohio is described in 55 posts in January and February 2014.

The trip from Spain to Greece is described in 23 posts from August 2015 to July 2016.  There are many individuals from my immediate family, and those who love and care about me, to friends I love dearly, to professional associates at places where I lived and worked, and all those who encouraged and inspired me to write.  I want to thank and express my gratitude to all and wish them a good a pleasant trip in their lives.  The pictures in this post are from Porto Rafti, the beautiful little bay, I have made my domicile while in Greece.

                                                                       The three pictures in this post were taken by my brother-in-law Kostas Fotos.

Dawn

In Greek mythology Dawn or Eos (Ηως in Greek) is a Goddess that rises each morning from her home the Ocean (Οκεανος).  In the Homeric Hymn to Helios, we are told that Hyperion married  Eryphaesa, and begot tireless Helios (the Sun), rosy Eos (the Dawn) and fair tressed Selene (the Moon).  Dawn appears as many as twenty times in The Odyssey, and the poem repeats similar descriptions of her such as “But when early-born rosy-fingered Dawn appeared…”  Book Eight first lines read When young Dawn with her red-rose fingers shone once more, the royal Alcinous, hallowed island king, rose from bed and great Odysseus, raider of cities, rose too. A There are many similar expressions in Homeric verse, which suggest that different things will happen every day, but Dawn always appears early and always with her rosy fingers.

The Greek Goddess Eos in her Chariot ready for another day of travel.  Edifice found in Herculaneum

Sunrise in our little paradise on earth Porto Rafti: the Homeric expression “when newborn Dawn appeared with rosy fingers…” describes our feelings when we see Eos. At dawn the hue of the sea becomes pink.  The waves become placid and their phosphoresce reflects shades of a red carnation. Όλος ο γιαλός ροδίζει γύρω. Τα κύματα φρικιούν ήρεμα, και το φωσφόρισμά των ανταυγάζει αποχρώσεις ερυθρού γαροφάλλου..." Παπαδιαμαντης

Sunrise in Ukraine; the Homeric expression “when the early Dawn was born; her fingers bloomed” is most appropriate.

The golden throne of Dawn was riding up the sky… and brought a beautiful day… in frozen Lake Baikal.

Aurora, ceiling fresco by Guido Reni (1613) Picture from Encyclopedia Brittanica

Taiwan, Japan, Sweden and Greece; a tale of four countries.

Early in 2020, the world started taking notice that a novel coronavirus disease, was spreading in the Chinese city of Wuhan.  It was later named, SARS-CoV-2 and the disease Covid-19.  As of today, there are slightly more than 6 million confirmed cases around the world and the global death toll has surpassed 370,000.   

Taiwan is an island nation of 24 million that sits just 70 miles from China.  More than four-hundred thousands of its citizens work in China and more than 2 million Chinese visit Taiwan every year thus a massive outbreak of the disease named Covid-19 seemed all but inevitablefor Taiwan would be one of the hardest hit countries.  Yet despite the odds, Taiwan has recorded only 441 cases of the disease as of today, with only 7 patients dying.  

So how did Taiwan manage to have so few cases and so few deaths from the disease.  First and most important Taiwan enacted prevention measures early.  On Dec. 31, the day the Wuhan authorities announced that there were several patients with an unidentified type of pneumonia, Taiwan activated stricter control measures with testing of incoming travellers with fever and questioned suspected travellers about their contact history.

On Jan 20, Taiwan activated its Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), which rolled out more than 124 measures such as banning all exports of surgical masks and providing all its citizens with two free masks.  On Jan 26 it banned travel to and from Wuhan.  According to a March 3 article published in JAMA, the CECC rolled out measures that included border control, case identification, quarantine for all travelers from regions hard hit by the disease, and postponing the reopening of schools following the winter break.  The center also served as the source of information for the public, with daily press conferences that provided the population with reliable and easy to understand information about the outbreak.  It was thanks to these measures that Taiwan experienced one of the smallest fatality rates in the world of only 0.3 deaths per million.

Japan went its own way, limiting tests to only the most severe cases.

Japan — the grayest country in the world and a popular tourist destination with large, crowded cities — has one of the lowest mortality rates from Covid-19. Τhe government never forced businesses to close and the medical system did not get overwhelmed. 

Japan focused on quickly containing small outbreaks through contact tracing. It has focused on lessening people’s anxiety and stressing the basic science of prevention: wash your hands, wear a mask, keep your distance from others.

A public education campaign urged people to avoid the “Three C’s” which are closed spaces with poor ventilation, crowded places and close contact.

Last week, Prime Minister Abe declared Japan’s battle against the outbreak a success, taking the country off its “lockdown lite” that lasted only a month and a half.  Japan experienced one of the smallest fatality rates in the world of only 7 deaths per million.

As the virus spread across Europe, many Greeks feared that Greece would be hit as bad asItaly and Spain.  On Feb. 27, a day after the country’s first Covid-19 case was diagnosed the government canceled the annual carnival and all sporting events and on March 11, it closed down schools and universities. Two days later all travelers from abroad had to go through a two-week mandatory quarantine.  It also closed down cafes, restaurants, libraries and museums.  Attendance of mass in churches was also forbidden even during Holy week and Easter. 

Everyone in the country during the 2 ½ months lockdown had to request permission by sending an SMS each time we were to leave our homes, to go to supermarkets, doctors’ offices, pharmacies to visit and help our elderly relatives, to go for a walk or risk a fine.

(Picture of an empty Monastiraki square in Athens with view of the Acropolis in the background.)  

The government established a council of experts who issued information and advice on a daily basis.  It was the willingness of most Greeks to comply with experts’ suggestions that brought about an outstanding result of only 2,915 confirmed cases and 175 deaths as of today.  Greece similarly to Japan tested for the virus less than 1 percent of the population. As of today, 15,903 tests per million were performed mostly on people admitted to hospitals with symptoms and those who have been in contact with confirmed cases. Spot tests on travelers coming into the country from abroad were performed as well.  For comparison purposes Germany and Austria countries that also had very good results performed 47,194 and 47,477 tests per million of inhabitants respectively.  

As of this week, the number of cases and more important the number of deaths per million comparing to other European countries point to a Greek success story.  So, what was Greece’s good result due to?  First, as Taiwan, Greece enacted its plan, a strict lockdown, earlier than most European countries.  Second, the population of 11 million Greeks lives in a mainland which is mountainous, the size of which is 50,000 square miles, and which is surrounded by two seas the Aegean (82,000 square miles) and the Ionian sea (65,000 square miles) with more than a thousand islands,  thus the country is sparsely populated as its physical characteristics make contact between villages and small towns difficult, which after all was forbidden during the lockdown.  Third, most of the Greeks accepted the enacted recommendations of social distancing and adhered to its principles.   Greece experienced one of the smallest fatality rates in Europe of only 18 deaths per million.

(Picture of a deserted beach in Porto Rafti, Greece)

Sweden's controversial plan to deal with the coronavirus allowed for people to go outside, visit restaurants, bars  and shops as long as they kept distant from each other.  Sweden closed high schools and universities and did not allow gatherings of more than 50 people.  Although not everyone in Sweden is happy with this approach, the majority of the people were satisfied.

Anders Tegnell, who advocated this approach, estimated that 40% of the people in Stockholm will be immune by the end of June which will give the country a big advantage, as most of the countries will experience a “big second wave” later this year.  As of May 20th, only 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants have antibodies to Covid-19.  He also said the “lockdown strategy” has not scientific basis especially when it comes to the young and children as they do not transmit the disease.   Sweden has reported zero coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours, for the first time since March 13.  Sweden experienced fatality rate was average in Europe with 440 deaths per million.

So, which approach should countries follow in the future when an infectious disease appears to be spreading and the danger of an epidemic is real?  Extensive testing such as performed in Singapore allows authorities to quickly determine who is infected and isolate them.  More than 90% of cases in Singapore  were mostly young, healthy men. Of those who died, 95% were more than 60 years old, while the vast majority of those infected were between the ages of 20 and 59. 

Taiwan’s and Greece’s success stories suggest that an early detection of a pandemic and enactment of measures for its control minimize the number of cases, flattens the curve and deaths.  

The “lockdown light’ approach of Japan also ensured a low death fatality rate.   

The open society approach with social distancing as it was practiced in Sweden has higher death toll but left the economy minimally affected.  

All four countries followed their experts’ advice and their policies did not become a source of political discord.  Unfortunately, fear and politicization of crises stigmatize governments or groups of people without helping to solve the challenge at hand therefore are ultimately unproductive.  Hopefully, in 2021 an effective vaccine will become available that will limit the prevalence of the disease.  Past pandemics such as the 1918-1919 Spanish flu, still have lessons we all can learn and benefit from as most viral pandemics have similarities therefore similar measures such social distancing, wearing masks when in crowded places, washing our hands often, use of hand sanitiser,  sneezing and coughing etiquette, often help in their control.  

Finally, going out for a walk and spending time in nearby park or nature reserve reduces stress and help us feel healthier and happier.  Looking at greenery and listening at nature’s sounds including total silence afforded to us in remote areas can boost our sense of well-being.   

Well, my friends this is the last post on pandemics and Covid-19.  In my opinion the pandemic will die down on its own as most epidemics do and all of us those infected or not will remember the Covid-19 epoch for the rest of our lives.

(Picture of the view and the undeveloped path  I took my daily walk that helped my mood during the lockdown) 

Corona Virus Pandemic; a Review and Perspective

May 1^st is a traditional spring holiday in many European countries. This year’s May 1^st is different than any in my memory because the corona virus pandemic is in the minds of most people in the world. (Photo of Porto Rafti, Greece)  

Since its beginning in December 2019, in Wuhan city in Hubei province of China, nearly 3,450,000 cases and 250,000 deaths due to Corona virus have been reported in 210 countries.  During this period, confirmed cases in select countries, are as listed in round numbers; U.S. 1,100,000, Spain 250,000, Italy 210,000, UK 180,000, France 170,000, Germany 165,000, China 84,000, Netherlands 40,000, Sweden 22,000, Ireland 21,000, Austria 16,000, Japan 14,300, S. Korea 10,800, Greece 2,600, and Taiwan 432.(Wuhan and Yangtze river) 

During the same time the deaths per million of inhabitants in the above-mentioned countries are: Spain 532, Italy 467, UK 409, France 364, Holland 267, Sweden 260, Ireland 240, USA 194, Germany 80, Austria 41, Greece 14, S. Korea 5 and Japan 3 and Taiwan 0.3.  Interestingly, while China enacted strict quarantine of the 60 million inhabitants of the Hubei province, Japan let individuals and businesses continue as in pre Covid-19 period but instituted lockdown when the cases spiked.  S. Korea instituted extensive testing early and reported no new cases as of yesterday.  Sweden also allowed its citizens continue their lives and businesses as in the pre Covid-19 epoch with minor exceptions such as not permiting gatherings of more than 50 people.  The vast majority of the remaining countries enacted lockdown schemes of different severity.  

There is no doubt that the total number of individuals infected maybe 10 times higher to the reported due to the large number of asymptomatic patients and also because the tests have a false negative rate as high as 30%.  Mortality statistics from France show deaths 30% in excess of normal levels, over the same time period.  

The Covid-19 shutdowns and lockdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill 240,000 million Americans or up to 2 million as the Imperial College of London predicted.  Some models predicted death rates as high as 1-3% while the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a death rate as high as 3.4%. 

Thee newer studies though refute these dire predictions.  The study from Stanford University tested 3,300 individuals for presence of antibodies in their blood that would show if they had previously been infected with the novel coronavirus.

The researchers found that between 2.5% and 4.2% of individuals tested had antibodies against the virus. That translated into 50 to 85 times higher number of  infections comparing to the known cases.  This suggests that the large majority of people who are infected by the corona virus remain asymptomatic. The authors also estimated that the death rate due to the Covid-19 is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%.

A study from China that was published in BMJ found that 130 of 166 new infections (78%) were asymptomatic.  

A study from New York published in the NEJM examined 215 women entering two hospitals to give birth. Of expectant mothers who tested positive for active infections, 88% were asymptomatic at the time of admission.

If the findings of the three studies are true one may wonder why do we lockdown, if the disease is so widely spread and has infected large number of people worldwide.  

The IHME of the University of Washington projected 82,141 deaths from Corona virus in the U.S. by August 4, 2020. While the CDC estimates that in 2019-2020 season in the U.S. which just ended, there were 39 to 56 million flu cases and 24,000-62,000 deaths.

The more I look at the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to the pandemic the more I realise that certain unique patterns from different countries begin to evolve.  I think we should all learn from the Swedish, S Korean and especially Taiwanese experiences.  The deaths per million of inhabitants in Sweden are 260, in S Korea’s are 5, while Taiwan’s is a mere 0.3 per million.  It is axiomatic that we study how Taiwan’s tamed Covid-19, with sound hygienic practices like wearing masks and/or avoiding congested places, washing our hands and coughing or sneezing into our elbows and the most important early diagnosis of an impeding endemic. If more countries can replicate those, we can achieve death rates as low as that of Taiwan while waiting for a vaccine and/or drugs against the virus to be developed.

Most Popular Posts

As you know on the first day of the new year, I publish the all-time favorites.   This year the top three from the 190 posts were:

1.    In the Land of the Cyclops

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2016/04/in-land-of-cyclops.html

2.   Poseidon’s Temple and the Aegean Sea

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2014/04/poseidons-temple-and-aegean-sea.html

3.   Porto Rafti

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2014/03/porto-rafti.html

Most of the 50,000+ visitors were from the United States, followed by Greece and Russia, France, Germany, Ukraine, Ireland, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia.

I wish you all and your loved ones a healthy and happy New Year.  I also hope 2020 will bring peace on home planet Earth.

Dawn of a New Day and a New Year

The games were over now. The gathered armies scattered,
each man to his fast ship, and fighters turned their minds
to thoughts of food and the sweet warm grip of sleep.

But Achilles kept on grieving for his friend,
the memory burning on . . .
and all-subduing sleep could not take him,
not now, he turned and twisted, side to side,
he longed for Patroclus' manhood, his gallant heart.

What rough campaigns they'd fought to an end together,
what hardships they had suffered, cleaving their way
through wars of men and pounding waves at sea.

The memories flooded over him, live tears flowing,
and now he'd lie on his side, now flat on his back,
now facedown again. At last he'd leap to his feet,
wander in anguish, aimless along the surf, 

until dawn appeared with her rosy finger flaming over the sea and shore 

would find him pacing.

 from Homer’s Iliad Book XXIV 

Parker Solar Probe acquired the first ever photo taken from inside the sun’s corona. The bright streak is a coronal streamer. Up to now, all photos of the sun have been taken from a great distance, either from ground or from telescopes in space given the sun’s extreme heat. The sun is a magnificent, hot, glowing ball of gas with its enormous hot plasma and bright coronal streamers streaking out into the surrounding blackness that matches Homer’s magnificent descriptions of sun’s rays at Dawn in both the Iliad and Odyssey. 

Today, at the dawn of the New Year, my favorite description of Dawn by Homer is… Dawn appeared with her rosy fingers.  I wish you all a Happy New Year.

Selene - Blood Moon

Selene in Greek mythology (in Greek Σελήνη) is the goddess of the moon.  The etymology of Selene is likely connected to the word Selas (Σέλας), meaning "light". Selene, who drives her chariot across the heavens, in classical times, was often identified with Artemis much as her brother, Helios, was identified with Apollo. Selene’s love for handsome mortal shepherd Endymion inspired poets and artists alike.  Even today romantics express their feelings on nights when the moon is in full and its light reflects on the water. (Painting by N Poussin 1630, Detroit Institute of Arts)

On July 27, 2018 in Europe, Africa and some countries in Asia we observed the longest total lunar eclipse of the century. As the Earth was into perfect alignment between the moon and sun, its shadow completely covered the moon. Rather than appearing as a black spot in the heavens our planet’s only natural satellite first exuded a blood-red hue at moonrise.   Normally, sunlight hits the moon directly and that's why it's typically bright and white.  During an eclipse, the Earth moves between the sun and the moon and filters out some its light.  When the white light hits the Earth's atmosphere, it scatters the blue light and pushes the red light straight to the moon and so the blood moonrises.  The picture was taken when the moon rose behind and above the islet Rafti in the bay of Porto Rafti.  The blood moon and the total eclipse that followed with an awesome spectacle and it was understandable why our ancestors reacted with fear when celestial events like lunar or solar eclipses took place.

People long ago took a change in lunar hue as a sign of doom and panicked.  An interesting but unsubstantiated story is about how Christopher Columbus took a lunar eclipse to his advantage.  Columbus and his men were trapped on the island of Jamaica for over six months. As time wore on, the initial generosity that the native people, the Arawak, had shown faded. As famine loomed, Columbus turned to his almanac and found that a total lunar eclipse was forthcoming on Feb 29, 1504.  So, Columbus told the Arawak chief that his God was angry because they were withholding food from them and He would make the moon disappear or become "inflamed with wrath" in three days.  When the blood moon indeed rose on that eerie Sunday night, it terrified the Arawak who agreed to provide Columbus and his men with anything they needed, just so long as he asked his god to bring back the regular moon.

In ancient times, a blood moon was thought to be a bad omen, but now it is understood that it is simply due to the scattering of light by the air in our atmosphere.  While blue light scatters more red light scatters least, which is why the setting sun or the rising moon is red.  In the picture above the blood moon is between the statues of Apollo and Hera in Athens, Greece. (Photo by A Messinis, AFP/Getty)

An Early Christian Basilica

The bay of Porto Rafti (Λιμην Μεσογαιας) was a major port in Ancient Greece. The villages of Steiria, Prasiai, and Koroni were around the bay.  At Steiria (Porto Rafti) there was a settlement, a harbor with its pier still visible, a large cemetery and a basilica indicating a large population. 

Because Porto Rafti was the only bay on the east shores of Attica boats travelling to and from the Aegean islands and Asia Minor used it to conduct trade with Athens.

Few remaining antiquities are left around the bay.  At Drivlia (Steiria) the ruins of the Early Christian basilica (Αγια Κυριακή?) still exist.  The three-sided funerary basilica has been excavated and is located nearby the large Roman cemetery in use in the 4^th-6^thcentury BC.  In the same area remains of a bath complex and houses and multiple coin finds attest to a prosperous early Christian settlement. 

The invention of the early Christian church (Εκκλησια) was an important architectural development as it was achieved by the assimilation and rejection of previous prototypes, such as the Greco-Roman temples, and the Synagogue.  Basilica is the Latin tem for a large, important church taken from the Greek Βασιλικη Στοα that means King’s hall or Palace.  Basilicas are rectangular buildings with side aisles and pillars extending their length and an apse at one end. It was this type of building the early Christians adopted for their churches, possibly to differentiate them from the temples in which rectangular walled structure was inside and it was surrounded by pillars.  

Porto Rafti early Christian basilica as all Catholic and Orthodox churches faces east.  This orientation was so it faces towards Jerusalem. Another possibility is that because early Christian churches were constructed at sites where Ancient Greek temples existed most of which were aligned to the sun ie East.