What Caused the Mysterious Disappearance of MH370?

Flying is one of the safest forms of transportation.  It is safer than walking or driving or bicycling or boating, according to the US National Center for Health Statistics.  Studies from the US Department of Transportation and the University of Michigan show that flying is 29-33 times safer than driving.  According to the US Federal Aviation Administration’s database pilot error is the most common cause of accidents.  Although people believe that all crew and passengers perish in an accident, this far from the truth.  Of the 53,487 people involved in airplane crashes 51,207 survived based on data collected between 1983 and 2000 by the National Transportation Safety Board, a survival rate of 95.7 percent.  In 2011, there were 31 accidents in the US, with no fatalities, in a year of more than 17 million flight hours.

An incredible number of theories have been advanced in the effort to explain Malaysian’s flight MH370 disappearance.  Some are credible while others border on the ridiculous.  I will present those I consider credible:

1.    Catastrophic structural failure of the aircraft may have caused decompression and incapacitation of crew and passengers due to lack of oxygen.  Although one of the aircraft's wings was damaged in the past, it was repaired and the aircraft had passed several inspections after that incident successfully. This particular model -Boeing 777- has an impressive safety record and the only recorded accident at San Francisco's airport, in 2013, was due to pilot's error.  U.S. officials report that the the plane's two communication systems -data reporting and transponder- were shutdown at 1:07am and 1:21am separately.  This information makes catastrophic structural failure unlikely. 

2.    Pilot's error is highly unlikely as both pilots were experienced and skillful.

3.    Weather related failure is highly unlikely as the reported weather conditions in the area were good.

4.    Terrorist act.  A large explosive device can cause an airplane’s disintegration with parts spread over a large area but none have been found as of today.  At the time of the last communication, made halfway between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane had reached high altitude and was off the primary radar.  A military radar recorded an abrupt change of the course from northbound to westbound. It is likely that the blips observed on the radar were pieces of a disintegrating plane flown to different directions.  Recent information reveals that the plane was sending signals to a satellite for four hours after it went missing.  The plane could have flown on automatic pilot for thousand of miles even without anybody at the controls.

5.    Pilot suicide.  While exceedingly rare for a pilot to kill himself — and everyone else on a plane — there are several well documented cases.  I will mention only few.  In November 2013, the Mozambique Airlines flight 470 went down in Namibia.   The cause of the crash was a mystery as the plane was only one year old, flown by an experienced pilot, in good weather.   According to cockpit voice recordings, the co-pilot left to use the bathroom, and when he returned, he found the door shut. Inside, the pilot had switched the plane’s altitude reading from 38,000 feet to ground level, and a recording of someone pounding on the door of the cockpit as the plane plummeted was made. Investigators later concluded the plane had crashed because of intentional actions of the pilot.  In 1999, the Cairo-bound Egypt Air flight 990 plummeted into the Atlantic Ocean. During the plane’s tailspin, its pilot, whispered in Arabic, “I rely on God,” traditionally uttered moments before death.  In 1997, Silk Air Flight 185 took off from Indonesia, bound for Singapore. Thirty-five minutes later, the aircraft mysteriously and suddenly dove vertically into Musi River in Sumatra. All on board perished.  While only audio recordings and black box data about the position and aircraft’s mode of flying such as sustained nose down without engine malfunction can lead experts to a conclusion that the pilot may have committed suicide. 

The lack of radio communication with the ground as the plane may have continued flying for hours and the lack of transponder sending info as of its location and altitude are suggestive of an act of terrorism  or pilot's suicide, as the plausible scenarios for the mysterious disappearance of flight MH370. 

Malaysia Airlines said today it would retire the flight codes MH370 and MH371 "as a mark of respect" to the people on board its missing passenger jet. 

We, the people, will keep the families of the crew and passengers of MH370 in our thoughts and prayers.