Corona Virus Pandemic; a Review and Perspective

May 1^st is a traditional spring holiday in many European countries. This year’s May 1^st is different than any in my memory because the corona virus pandemic is in the minds of most people in the world. (Photo of Porto Rafti, Greece)  

Since its beginning in December 2019, in Wuhan city in Hubei province of China, nearly 3,450,000 cases and 250,000 deaths due to Corona virus have been reported in 210 countries.  During this period, confirmed cases in select countries, are as listed in round numbers; U.S. 1,100,000, Spain 250,000, Italy 210,000, UK 180,000, France 170,000, Germany 165,000, China 84,000, Netherlands 40,000, Sweden 22,000, Ireland 21,000, Austria 16,000, Japan 14,300, S. Korea 10,800, Greece 2,600, and Taiwan 432.(Wuhan and Yangtze river) 

During the same time the deaths per million of inhabitants in the above-mentioned countries are: Spain 532, Italy 467, UK 409, France 364, Holland 267, Sweden 260, Ireland 240, USA 194, Germany 80, Austria 41, Greece 14, S. Korea 5 and Japan 3 and Taiwan 0.3.  Interestingly, while China enacted strict quarantine of the 60 million inhabitants of the Hubei province, Japan let individuals and businesses continue as in pre Covid-19 period but instituted lockdown when the cases spiked.  S. Korea instituted extensive testing early and reported no new cases as of yesterday.  Sweden also allowed its citizens continue their lives and businesses as in the pre Covid-19 epoch with minor exceptions such as not permiting gatherings of more than 50 people.  The vast majority of the remaining countries enacted lockdown schemes of different severity.  

There is no doubt that the total number of individuals infected maybe 10 times higher to the reported due to the large number of asymptomatic patients and also because the tests have a false negative rate as high as 30%.  Mortality statistics from France show deaths 30% in excess of normal levels, over the same time period.  

The Covid-19 shutdowns and lockdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill 240,000 million Americans or up to 2 million as the Imperial College of London predicted.  Some models predicted death rates as high as 1-3% while the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a death rate as high as 3.4%. 

Thee newer studies though refute these dire predictions.  The study from Stanford University tested 3,300 individuals for presence of antibodies in their blood that would show if they had previously been infected with the novel coronavirus.

The researchers found that between 2.5% and 4.2% of individuals tested had antibodies against the virus. That translated into 50 to 85 times higher number of  infections comparing to the known cases.  This suggests that the large majority of people who are infected by the corona virus remain asymptomatic. The authors also estimated that the death rate due to the Covid-19 is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%.

A study from China that was published in BMJ found that 130 of 166 new infections (78%) were asymptomatic.  

A study from New York published in the NEJM examined 215 women entering two hospitals to give birth. Of expectant mothers who tested positive for active infections, 88% were asymptomatic at the time of admission.

If the findings of the three studies are true one may wonder why do we lockdown, if the disease is so widely spread and has infected large number of people worldwide.  

The IHME of the University of Washington projected 82,141 deaths from Corona virus in the U.S. by August 4, 2020. While the CDC estimates that in 2019-2020 season in the U.S. which just ended, there were 39 to 56 million flu cases and 24,000-62,000 deaths.

The more I look at the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to the pandemic the more I realise that certain unique patterns from different countries begin to evolve.  I think we should all learn from the Swedish, S Korean and especially Taiwanese experiences.  The deaths per million of inhabitants in Sweden are 260, in S Korea’s are 5, while Taiwan’s is a mere 0.3 per million.  It is axiomatic that we study how Taiwan’s tamed Covid-19, with sound hygienic practices like wearing masks and/or avoiding congested places, washing our hands and coughing or sneezing into our elbows and the most important early diagnosis of an impeding endemic. If more countries can replicate those, we can achieve death rates as low as that of Taiwan while waiting for a vaccine and/or drugs against the virus to be developed.

The Major Pandemics thru History

The Plague of Athens was an epidemic that devastated the city of Athens during the second year of the Peloponnesian War in 430 BC. The plague returned twice more and killed 25% of the Athenian population. The epidemic caused a massive migration from the Attic countryside into the city and resulted into an overpopulation. Due to the close quarters and poor hygiene, Athens proper became a breeding ground for the Plague and many citizens died, including the statesman  Pericles, Aspasia his wife, and his two sons.  

Some 30 pathogens have been implicated as having caused the plague but the most likely microbe according to Professor Durack of the University of Maryland was due to Rickettsial bacteria that can cause three different varieties of the disease we call typhus. According to historian Thucydides, the Athenian Plague came from Africa, Ebola and other hemorrhagic fever diseases are other distinct possibilities. (The Plague of Athens, paintng of Michiel Sweets c 1652-1654) 

In the year 541 AD, the Justinian Plague, spread thru most of the Byzantine Empire, and Western Europe including England and Ireland.  The pandemic that reappear several times until 750 AD resulted in the death of 25 to 100 million people a toll that represented 50% of Europe’s population in the first outbreak.  In 2013, researchers confirmed that the cause of the Justinian Plague was Yersinia pestis, the same bacterium responsible for the Black Death. 

The Black Death, also known as the Pestilence, the Great Bubonic Plague or the Plague, was the most devastating pandemic recorded in human history, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 200 million people in Eurasia, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351. The bacterium Yersinia Pestis which is known to cause several forms of the Plague such as the bubonic which is the most common, the pneumonic and others, is believed to have been the cause. 

The Black Death probably originated in Central Asia and via the Silk Road reached Crimea by 1343. From there, it was likely carried by the fleas living on rats that traveled on Genoese  merchant ships, spreading the Black Death throughout the Mediterranean Basin, and reaching the rest of Europe via the Italian Peninsula.  The plague arrived in Europe in October 1347, on 12 ships that docked at the port of Messina. People at the docks were met with a horrifying surprise: Most sailors aboard the ships were dead, and those still alive were gravely ill and covered in black boils that oozed blood and pus.  

The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.  In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 375 million in the 14th century. It took 200 years for Europe's population to recover to its previous level.  There were three more outbreaks of the plague in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries that claimed an additional 15 million lives.  

The arrival of European conquerors and later immigrants into the Americas introduced new diseases to the indigenous populations who had no immunity to them.  As early as 1492 and later in 1836 through 1840 smallpox epidemics occurred.  Smallpox reached its height after the spring of 1837 when the steamboat, S.S. St. Peter, carried infected people and supplies into the Missouri Valley.  The death toll during the epidemic was approximately 17,000 people.  In the span of two years the Mandan Indian tribe was totally decimated.  During the epidemic white settlers and the army allegedly facilitated the spread of smallpox among unsuspecting Native Americans by giving them blankets that smallpox patients had used.  Although not scientifically documented it is likely one of the many genocides in human history. 

The Spanish flu an unusually deadly influenza pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920.  It infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world's population at the time and its death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million.  WWI military censorship minimised reports of deaths among populations of waring nations while they were free to report from neutral Spain thus their stories created the false impression that Spain was the place the flu originated from and giving rise to the pandemic’s nickname Spanish flu.  A recent paper describes that the cities which were mostly affected by the flu experienced an economic decline with an 18% reduction of their economic output.  They authors suggest that the cities which intervened earlier and aggressively grew faster after the pandemic was over. 
(Soldiers with Spanish flu at hospital ward at Camp Funston)

Since its beginning in December 2019 in Wuhan city, in Hubei province of China, nearly 860,000 cases and 42,000 deaths due to Corona virus have been reported worldwide.  During this period, confirmed cases in select countries, are as listed in round numbers; US 190,000, Italy 105,000, China 82,000, Germany 71,000, France 52,000, Sweden 4,500, Greece 1,300, S. Korea 9,900 and Japan 2,000.  For those who are interested in a more detailed analysis please check the link Radiology Monthly but briefly as of today the death per million in the USA is 12, Italy’s is off the scale at 200, Germany’s is 10, Sweden’s is 18, Greece’s is 5, S. Korea’s is 3 and Japan’s is 0.5 which is remarkably low.  Most of the countries have instituted lockdowns, the Swedes and the Japanese are using social distancing and have not changed their way of living comparing to that before the pandemic. The Koreans and the Singaporeans are doing extensive testing.  The Taiwanese are advising hygienic measures with excellent results.  Those interested in more information about pandemics of the past two millennia please consult the following link.

Corona virus

Some maybe wondering why I post about the Coronavirus in a blog devoted primarily to traveling.  Because viruses travel along with humans.  The reason they named the novel virus Corona virus is because under electron microscopy it looks like the crown royals wear.  Corona viruses and Rhinoviruses are the etiologic factors of common cold.  Most of the colds in the winter are due to Corona viruses while those in early fall, spring and summer are due to Rhinoviruses.   The novel Corona virus was recently renamed to Covid-19 belongs in the family of viruses that humans and other mammals harbor in our bodies. 

Covid-19 emerged in Hubei province in central China in late December 2019 and subsequently spread in 59 countries around the world.  As of March 6, 2020 at 12:15 UCT/GMT the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 100,242 infections and 3,408 deaths.  China the epicenter of the epidemic has reported 80,559 infections and 3,042 deaths.  South Korea has reported 6,593 cases and 42 deaths while Iran is next with 4,747 cases and 124 deaths and Italy follows with 3,858 cases and 148 deaths. The overall death rate is 3.4% but this is not an accurate estimate as it does not take into account the mild or asymptomatic cases that are not recorded.

Interestingly according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) there have been 30-40 million million flu cases, and between 15-40,000 deaths in the 2019-2020 flu season in the USA alone, a disease that can be prevented but individuals decide not to get vaccinated to their and other people peril.  

The most common symptoms of Covid-19 infection are fever, headache and coughing as the virus tend to affect the lungs.  

Although it is impossible to avoid completely exposure in an epidemic there are several precautionary measures that people should take such as covering their nose and mouth when sneezing or coughing.

The simplest and most effective measure in the dissemination of the virus is washing hands with soap and water if we believe we’ve touched surfaces contaminated by nasal excretions. 

Wearing masks is a sensible way to prevent exposing others and maybe avoid viral exposure to ourselves.  Other reasonable precautions are avoiding contact with live animals that are known to harbor the virus such as bats, and finally avoiding eating uncooked meat. 

As in every epidemic people should exercise reasonable precautions while in the same time excessive measures should be avoided.  We should remember that similar epidemics have taken place in the past.  The MERS viral epidemic had a mortality rate of 10% while the SARS had a mortality rate of 5%.  The Corona virus mortality is estimated to be between 1-2%.  (Doctor Schnabel of Rome, is coper engraving by Paulus Fürst of a plague doctor in 1656)

Needless to say, that the mortality rate of the above-mentioned epidemics was negligible when is compared with the Plague or Black Death which is estimated to have killed 25 million individuals that represented one third of Europe’s population. The plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century. (Image Saint Sebastian interceding to God for the Plague stricken. By Josse Lieferinxe exhibited at The Walter’s Art Gallery, Baltimore, Maryland, USA)

Solar sailing

Solar sails have been long-discussed as a way to propel spacecraft.  The sails exploit the fact that solar wind exerts pressure on a mirrored surface.   This can be used for propulsion in a way that is akin to sails used by sailboats.

LightSail® is a solar sail project from the Planetary Society that has championed solar sailing for decades. The Society’s LightSail-2 spacecraft, launched 25 June 2019, is the first spacecraft in Earth’s orbit propelled solely by sunlight. On 31 July 2019, the LightSail-2’s orbit was raised, showing that solar sailing is a viable means of propulsion for CubeSats—small, standardised spacecraft that are part of a global effort to lower the cost of space exploration.

 The image above shows LightSail-2's sail after its deployment.

Most Popular Posts

As you know on the first day of the new year, I publish the all-time favorites.   This year the top three from the 190 posts were:

1.    In the Land of the Cyclops

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2016/04/in-land-of-cyclops.html

2.   Poseidon’s Temple and the Aegean Sea

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2014/04/poseidons-temple-and-aegean-sea.html

3.   Porto Rafti

http://dgscrosscountrychronicles.blogspot.com/2014/03/porto-rafti.html

Most of the 50,000+ visitors were from the United States, followed by Greece and Russia, France, Germany, Ukraine, Ireland, Canada, United Kingdom and Australia.

I wish you all and your loved ones a healthy and happy New Year.  I also hope 2020 will bring peace on home planet Earth.

Hayabusa heading home

Japan's Hayabusa-2 spacecraft has departed from the asteroid Ryugu with samples of its soil and begun its year-long journey back to Earth. 

Hayabusa-2 was launched in 2014. Three and a half years later, it reached the asteroid Ryugu, located about 300 million km (190 million miles) from Earth.  The spacecraft is expected to return to Earth in December 2020, dropping a capsule containing the rock samples in the South Australian desert.  

Following its arrival in June 2018, the spacecraft made touchdowns twice, collecting data and rock samples from the Ryugu - a primitive space rock leftover from the early days of the Solar System

Scientists believed these would be more pristine samples, since they would not have been exposed to the harsh environment of space. They were the first underground samples collected from an asteroid in space history.

While asteroids are some of the oldest objects in space, Ryugu belongs to a particularly primitive type of space rock, and may contain clues about the conditions and chemistry of the early days of the Solar System - some 4.5 billion years ago.

The last two races of 2019

Porto Rafti’s nautical club Ν.Α.Σ.Π.Ο.Ρ organizes several sailboat races during the summer every year with the last two crossing to the second largest of the Greek Islands, Eboia (Εὔβοια,) or Evia.  Eboea derives its name from the words εὖ "good", and βοῦς "ox", meaning "the land of the well-fed oxen.  An interesting vignette is that the philosopher Aristotle died on the island of Eboea in 322 BC. 

The race on September 29, 2019 was to the coastal town of Karystos in the south coast of Evia. In antiquity Karystos’ name was Chaeronea and was famous for its wealth.

The medieval Castello Roso overlooks Karystos.  The impressive Venetian castle was built in the 13^th century, and is offering a panoramic view of the town.  

The overall winner of the race to Karystos was the legendary Okyrhoe.  In the picture we see the boat maneuvering near the starting line with my brother Nikos at the helm. 

The last race was to little port of Marmari in the southeast coast of Evia.  The boats are jockeying at the starting line.  

In this picture we see the southwest coast of Evia and the nearby Petali islets.  These two races concluded the 2019 season.  It is time for the boats and the sailors to rest and prepare for the 2020 season.  I wish you all a good winter, stay healthy and get ready for 2020!